I posted a bunch more pictures. You'll see me with most of the guest. Feel free to skip them. :-)
I've got more panel pictures if anyone's interested.
more pics
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Final thoughts
I was so fortunate to sit at Rachel Maddow’s table at lunch today. It was so much fun! We got the scoop on how much time she has to prepare for her appearances on Olbermann (very little), all the jobs she’s had in her life (can’t remember them all, but handyman (handyperson?) and barista were 2 of the many). And partner Susan was there, too. Very, very nice person, of course. Probably the most frequent observation I heard from people upon seeing Rachel for the first time is how tall she is. Second observation, after about 1 minute it is clear how warm, friendly and approachable she is. Then you add the smart conversation, the knowledge she has at her fingertips and you have one heck of an experience.
Because some people didn’t make it to dinner (I think the moderately rolling ship may have had something to do with that) I also had the opportunity to be at Lionel’s table this evening for dinner. I wish I could recount how he tells a story or makes commentary. I know we can hear something similar when he’s on the air, but I think this is a little different and even a little funnier. Tonight was the last dinner and the wait staff did some very funny stuff (intentional and not) when they delivered some of the dinner courses. Lionel’s commentary (and the look on his face as he observed) was a hoot!
We had a final cocktail party hosted by Air America before dinner. I could be wrong, but this one was much, much louder than the first night. No surprise, I suppose. It was great to hang out with all the people we’d met all week. The cameras were out in force, including mine. I managed to get my picture taken with every speaker present tonight except Marc Sussman. I will post some additional pictures after I get home.
I hope you enjoyed these and you found them interesting.
Because some people didn’t make it to dinner (I think the moderately rolling ship may have had something to do with that) I also had the opportunity to be at Lionel’s table this evening for dinner. I wish I could recount how he tells a story or makes commentary. I know we can hear something similar when he’s on the air, but I think this is a little different and even a little funnier. Tonight was the last dinner and the wait staff did some very funny stuff (intentional and not) when they delivered some of the dinner courses. Lionel’s commentary (and the look on his face as he observed) was a hoot!
We had a final cocktail party hosted by Air America before dinner. I could be wrong, but this one was much, much louder than the first night. No surprise, I suppose. It was great to hang out with all the people we’d met all week. The cameras were out in force, including mine. I managed to get my picture taken with every speaker present tonight except Marc Sussman. I will post some additional pictures after I get home.
I hope you enjoyed these and you found them interesting.
Friday, February 29, 2008
last topic: 2:30 3:30 – what you can do to push for progressive patriotism
2:30 3:30 – what you can do to push for progressive patriotism
Rachel: what to do in the next 6 months to move forward the ideals we’ve all been talking about.
Lots of discussion about what folks want to do when they get home
Jon: bring back Kent Jones – NOW!
Mark: get cluster a bunch of like-minded people ($100 apiece, 10 people) give to a local candidate…
Sen. JFK – how do I know what the people of MA want? Real grass roots letters, not uniform-type – work.
Jon: what are you doing on election day? Call your local Dem party and get involved. Also, build candidates at the local level. Identify some bright 30-somethings and suggest they become a candidate. Wellstone action, DFA run clinics on how to be a candidate, how to be a campaign mgr, etc. By their mid-40s, they’re running for Congress.
Aldus Tyler who gets progressive radio stay on the air has sessions in different places to show .
We’re working on “franchising” radio stations. Then we’re not at the whim of radio stations who cut us off at a whim.
Randi: I’ve eaten too much. I love you so much. And I’ve learned so much from you. There’s a radiation expert here who is teaching me about why nuclear is so bad. A Princeton educated economist is here.. So many incredible people here. Debbie says sign up to list-servs of your candidates. You’ll get the talking points you need to talk to Republicans; we need the youth vote, so we need to participate in voter registration for 18-24 yr olds. Volunteer in local Dem office. Anything we can do down-ticket from the Presidential, do it. You can address all the Karl Rovian bullshit. County and state conventions – have pre-convention forums to write resolutions for the platform votes. If enough people come out and vote they cannot steal the election from us.
Randi: think ahead. Know what they’re going to do, know what you’re going to do.
Rachel: The down-ticket story is VERY important. Bill Clinton didn’t pay attention to this and the lower end of the party lost a lot of institutional strength. This work remains to be done. Howard Dean has been great with his 50-state strategy. So: 1. Run for office or find someone who will. 2. Participate in the down-ticket races. Find time, even if you are already working at the top level. Even local city council level. You can make all the difference in the local races. Because of racism and/or sexism polls showed that down-ticket we don’t do so well (compared to Edwards) . So we need to work very hard on the down-ticket races.
Randi: Be an election judge. A Poll Worker. Stay involved in everything that’s going on right up to the election and until the last vote is counted. Stay in it to win it. But don’t get crazy. Keep it simple.
Lionel: You’re like me!!!! I feel the connection! We’ve been scared. Like there are only 2 things you never talk about – religion and politics – what else is there?? In the 60s people like us were pissed off. Then we got complacent and the angry white men were pissed off (Rush Limbaugh). Now WE’RE pissed off again. Yeah! On a subterranean level - talk to your Conservative friends. Lose the labels. Start asking questions like this: Joe, say you lost your job, got sick, you don’t want the gov’t to pay for you, right? And are you ok with your kid going off to Iraq, right? Don’t talk labels. When they agree with you then you can say “by the way, you’re a progressive”.
Thom: Despair is not an option. We have to get active. Voting is not enough. Just voting is not enough. Get out there and participate. Amen to what’s aready been said. “Tag, YOU’RE IT!”
Randi: Kumbayah. :-)
Carolyn from MoveOn.Org: Local groups from MoveOn do local political stuff. March 19th – nationwide activism on the anniversary of the occupation of Iraq. Operation Democracy (www.operationdemocracy.org) will help you find or create a group local to you.
Rachel: Biggest concern is stolen elections. Go to www.blackboxvoting.org
Rachel: what to do in the next 6 months to move forward the ideals we’ve all been talking about.
Lots of discussion about what folks want to do when they get home
Jon: bring back Kent Jones – NOW!
Mark: get cluster a bunch of like-minded people ($100 apiece, 10 people) give to a local candidate…
Sen. JFK – how do I know what the people of MA want? Real grass roots letters, not uniform-type – work.
Jon: what are you doing on election day? Call your local Dem party and get involved. Also, build candidates at the local level. Identify some bright 30-somethings and suggest they become a candidate. Wellstone action, DFA run clinics on how to be a candidate, how to be a campaign mgr, etc. By their mid-40s, they’re running for Congress.
Aldus Tyler who gets progressive radio stay on the air has sessions in different places to show .
We’re working on “franchising” radio stations. Then we’re not at the whim of radio stations who cut us off at a whim.
Randi: I’ve eaten too much. I love you so much. And I’ve learned so much from you. There’s a radiation expert here who is teaching me about why nuclear is so bad. A Princeton educated economist is here.. So many incredible people here. Debbie says sign up to list-servs of your candidates. You’ll get the talking points you need to talk to Republicans; we need the youth vote, so we need to participate in voter registration for 18-24 yr olds. Volunteer in local Dem office. Anything we can do down-ticket from the Presidential, do it. You can address all the Karl Rovian bullshit. County and state conventions – have pre-convention forums to write resolutions for the platform votes. If enough people come out and vote they cannot steal the election from us.
Randi: think ahead. Know what they’re going to do, know what you’re going to do.
Rachel: The down-ticket story is VERY important. Bill Clinton didn’t pay attention to this and the lower end of the party lost a lot of institutional strength. This work remains to be done. Howard Dean has been great with his 50-state strategy. So: 1. Run for office or find someone who will. 2. Participate in the down-ticket races. Find time, even if you are already working at the top level. Even local city council level. You can make all the difference in the local races. Because of racism and/or sexism polls showed that down-ticket we don’t do so well (compared to Edwards) . So we need to work very hard on the down-ticket races.
Randi: Be an election judge. A Poll Worker. Stay involved in everything that’s going on right up to the election and until the last vote is counted. Stay in it to win it. But don’t get crazy. Keep it simple.
Lionel: You’re like me!!!! I feel the connection! We’ve been scared. Like there are only 2 things you never talk about – religion and politics – what else is there?? In the 60s people like us were pissed off. Then we got complacent and the angry white men were pissed off (Rush Limbaugh). Now WE’RE pissed off again. Yeah! On a subterranean level - talk to your Conservative friends. Lose the labels. Start asking questions like this: Joe, say you lost your job, got sick, you don’t want the gov’t to pay for you, right? And are you ok with your kid going off to Iraq, right? Don’t talk labels. When they agree with you then you can say “by the way, you’re a progressive”.
Thom: Despair is not an option. We have to get active. Voting is not enough. Just voting is not enough. Get out there and participate. Amen to what’s aready been said. “Tag, YOU’RE IT!”
Randi: Kumbayah. :-)
Carolyn from MoveOn.Org: Local groups from MoveOn do local political stuff. March 19th – nationwide activism on the anniversary of the occupation of Iraq. Operation Democracy (www.operationdemocracy.org) will help you find or create a group local to you.
Rachel: Biggest concern is stolen elections. Go to www.blackboxvoting.org
1:30-2:30 pm – Closing session: What Makes a Good Talk Radio show?
1:30-2:30 pm – Closing session: What Makes a Good Talk Radio show? You Tell Us? Panelists: Randi, Rachel, Lionel, Thom, Jon, and Marc.
First commentator – diehard Republican mom of an AA listener has finally said she can’t take it anymore (Republicans).
Next: Thanks, Thom for teaching us how to argue with our Republican friends. Rachel, please take calls. Jon, it’s great that you’re in the community.
Next: from Tom DeLay territory. Thanks, Mark. But I hate Ed Schultz on XM. Mark replies – Ed is not AA.
Thom: support our advertisers but when you talk to potential advertisers don’t talk as if we’re a charity. We deliver customers. Our listeners are consumers who support our advertisers.
Next: Richard from New Zealand asked why there aren’t more young people here? Answer $$$. How about a scholarship fund to fund younger participation. Email briannospam@stockmar.com – remove the letters n-o-s-p-a-m in that address.
Mark – maybe contests for each show.
Next: Rachel, we want Kent Jones NOW!!
Next: list the advertisers on the station websites.
Next : certain stations repeat shows and therefore the late night stuff is never heard by some listeners.
Lionel – streaming at home – no 7 second delay. ;-)
Next: list of books on AA website. Thom and Jon already have these thinks.
Next: Randi, I drive around Denver laughing my ass off. I learn so much and I’m still laughing.
Next: Firesign theatre never on AA yet. AA, please change the mindsets on Iraq. Lionel says they will be on his show.
Next: 2 requests: you are teachers and you need to teach the members of Congress what you are doing. Thom: if you want your member of Congress to know something, call your representative. Second: Listen to each other’s gems.
Next: advertisers need to have more humor in their commercials.
Next: I like that we can trust what you say. You tell the truth.
First commentator – diehard Republican mom of an AA listener has finally said she can’t take it anymore (Republicans).
Next: Thanks, Thom for teaching us how to argue with our Republican friends. Rachel, please take calls. Jon, it’s great that you’re in the community.
Next: from Tom DeLay territory. Thanks, Mark. But I hate Ed Schultz on XM. Mark replies – Ed is not AA.
Thom: support our advertisers but when you talk to potential advertisers don’t talk as if we’re a charity. We deliver customers. Our listeners are consumers who support our advertisers.
Next: Richard from New Zealand asked why there aren’t more young people here? Answer $$$. How about a scholarship fund to fund younger participation. Email briannospam@stockmar.com – remove the letters n-o-s-p-a-m in that address.
Mark – maybe contests for each show.
Next: Rachel, we want Kent Jones NOW!!
Next: list the advertisers on the station websites.
Next : certain stations repeat shows and therefore the late night stuff is never heard by some listeners.
Lionel – streaming at home – no 7 second delay. ;-)
Next: list of books on AA website. Thom and Jon already have these thinks.
Next: Randi, I drive around Denver laughing my ass off. I learn so much and I’m still laughing.
Next: Firesign theatre never on AA yet. AA, please change the mindsets on Iraq. Lionel says they will be on his show.
Next: 2 requests: you are teachers and you need to teach the members of Congress what you are doing. Thom: if you want your member of Congress to know something, call your representative. Second: Listen to each other’s gems.
Next: advertisers need to have more humor in their commercials.
Next: I like that we can trust what you say. You tell the truth.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
5:30 – 6:30 – Topic: Our Dysfunctional Financial and Health Care Systems.
5:30 – 6:30 – Topic: Our Dysfunctional Financial and Health Care Systems. Panelists: Marc Sussman and Paul Krugman
Marc
Bankruptcy law was engineered by the credit card companies. That says it all. People getting hurt are those with no access to resources. Inner city has payday loans, etc. Seed money for businesses is missing.
Do you know what your rights are? Do you know what your power is as an owner of stock and/or mutual funds? You can vote. The SEC is proposing to limit the rights of shareholders to bring actions against the boards of directors of companies. SEC favors owners, not shareholders. Socially responsible funds advocate for you, so that’s available.
We have an education system of a third world country. Only a third of American students will go to college. Easing regulations for companies plus tightening of credit for student loans. What are our priorities?
No affordable housing in NYC. Places to live are owned by corporations, foreigners. A perfect storm is brewing.
Paul
Economics of health care are simple. It’s the politics that are hard. If you ask “should everyone have health insurance? That’s easy. It’s in the details.
What value are insurance companies adding? Nothing. They make money by collecting premiums and not paying for health care. The business model is decide who needs treatment and deny them.
“They” say Americans wouldn’t accept a single payer system – but they ignore Medicare. Already the public health care systems pay more than the private systems. 45% of costs are paid by gov’t, 35% by private companies.
Insurance companies spend a lot of money NOT paying for services. Medicare is the most efficient – 2 3% overhead. For-profit – 14% overhead. Even as much as 25%.
Insurance Co and big Pharma influence the politics of it.
They foster fear – fear of the unknown. Gov’t insurance won’t be as good as private. Fear mongering is VERY effective.
French care is the best in the world. Canadian is good too. British is actually socialized medicine. There are waits for elective surgery. System is run by doctors and they prioritize. So when politicians say here’s a lot of money, cut the wait, the drs say “let’s use it to pay for other things”.
We have single payer – Medicare –
Socialized medicine – VA system.
So why not just run on Medicare for all? Answer: fear. It will take a long time to build consensus on this. It needs to be transitional. Subsidies to poor people. All insurance companies MUST offer insurance to everyone who wants it. Must avoid free-riding. (Make it mandatory). If it’s optional, young, healthy people want to stay out of the system – until they need it.
Insurance companies will not be fooled. This will eventually put them out of business.
Dems – John Edwards brought it into the political domain a realistic plan, one that might actually happen. Clinton eventually adopted Edwards’ plan. Obama’s plan is “punted” on one piece – it’s not mandatory. Why? Political fear. Then he ran “Harry and Louise”-like commercials against Hillary, and Krugman thinks an Obama presidency will not foster single-payer.
Every other advanced country manages to pay for universal health care at less cost and just as high-quality health care.
Questions – we have long waits for health care now – one person here had to wait 6 months for surgery. Canada – hip replacement does take longer. Here, who pays for hip replacement – Medicare!
Woman dr here moved from US to Canada so has a great perspective. Waits are a myth in Canada. You DO get to pick your own doctor.
Marc
Bankruptcy law was engineered by the credit card companies. That says it all. People getting hurt are those with no access to resources. Inner city has payday loans, etc. Seed money for businesses is missing.
Do you know what your rights are? Do you know what your power is as an owner of stock and/or mutual funds? You can vote. The SEC is proposing to limit the rights of shareholders to bring actions against the boards of directors of companies. SEC favors owners, not shareholders. Socially responsible funds advocate for you, so that’s available.
We have an education system of a third world country. Only a third of American students will go to college. Easing regulations for companies plus tightening of credit for student loans. What are our priorities?
No affordable housing in NYC. Places to live are owned by corporations, foreigners. A perfect storm is brewing.
Paul
Economics of health care are simple. It’s the politics that are hard. If you ask “should everyone have health insurance? That’s easy. It’s in the details.
What value are insurance companies adding? Nothing. They make money by collecting premiums and not paying for health care. The business model is decide who needs treatment and deny them.
“They” say Americans wouldn’t accept a single payer system – but they ignore Medicare. Already the public health care systems pay more than the private systems. 45% of costs are paid by gov’t, 35% by private companies.
Insurance companies spend a lot of money NOT paying for services. Medicare is the most efficient – 2 3% overhead. For-profit – 14% overhead. Even as much as 25%.
Insurance Co and big Pharma influence the politics of it.
They foster fear – fear of the unknown. Gov’t insurance won’t be as good as private. Fear mongering is VERY effective.
French care is the best in the world. Canadian is good too. British is actually socialized medicine. There are waits for elective surgery. System is run by doctors and they prioritize. So when politicians say here’s a lot of money, cut the wait, the drs say “let’s use it to pay for other things”.
We have single payer – Medicare –
Socialized medicine – VA system.
So why not just run on Medicare for all? Answer: fear. It will take a long time to build consensus on this. It needs to be transitional. Subsidies to poor people. All insurance companies MUST offer insurance to everyone who wants it. Must avoid free-riding. (Make it mandatory). If it’s optional, young, healthy people want to stay out of the system – until they need it.
Insurance companies will not be fooled. This will eventually put them out of business.
Dems – John Edwards brought it into the political domain a realistic plan, one that might actually happen. Clinton eventually adopted Edwards’ plan. Obama’s plan is “punted” on one piece – it’s not mandatory. Why? Political fear. Then he ran “Harry and Louise”-like commercials against Hillary, and Krugman thinks an Obama presidency will not foster single-payer.
Every other advanced country manages to pay for universal health care at less cost and just as high-quality health care.
Questions – we have long waits for health care now – one person here had to wait 6 months for surgery. Canada – hip replacement does take longer. Here, who pays for hip replacement – Medicare!
Woman dr here moved from US to Canada so has a great perspective. Waits are a myth in Canada. You DO get to pick your own doctor.
Topic: How to Beat John McCain – A Strategy Session.
4:00-5:15pm Topic: How to Beat John McCain – A Strategy Session. Panelists: Rachel with Thom, Lionel.
I decided not to post the specifics about this session, although I took lots of notes. We had some great ideas but I didn’t want our possibly very effective strategy ideas to be seen by anyone who wants to help McCain get elected. :-)
I decided not to post the specifics about this session, although I took lots of notes. We had some great ideas but I didn’t want our possibly very effective strategy ideas to be seen by anyone who wants to help McCain get elected. :-)
Feb 28th Topic: The Bush Economy and the Middle Class
9:00-11:30 am – Panel: Paul Krugman with Thom Hartmann and Marc Sussman
Topic: The Bush Economy and the Middle Class
Intro – Bush’s policies are a form of looting.
Paul Krugman
What people usually do is contract Bush v Clinton years. The best years of Bush are worse than the worst years of the Clinton years… But this is an unfair comparison – to Bush. We’ve forgotten what an economy that’s good for the middle class looks like. It hasn’t been good for the past 30 years.
Politics managed to change the direction. (note: Read his latest book, Concience of a Liberal).
Tax rates have changed – bad for the middle class. Eating away of the social services, tho not as much as the right wanted.
Conclusion I’ve come to – more subtle things – shift in the balance of power. FDR in reverse. Example – enforcement of labor laws , or lack thereof. NLRB ruled supervisors can’t unionize. Define supervisor? Anyone who ever gives direction to anyone else. (Yikes!) Removal of informal constraints from paying CEOs 1000x what their workers get.
Shift of power already began before Reagan took office. Has led to severe polarization. Result we’re more productive and rich than in 1973 but it’s arguable that the middle class is better off.
Middle class has consistently done worse under Republicans than Democrats. Even under Carter. Bush economy has one feature that is politically gratifying. Underlying bad news will not be matched by a last minute recovery (which has worked for Republicans in the past)
Two worst economies in past history were both under men named Bush.
Thom
News today- Bernake signaled his readiness to bolster the economy with cheaper money. But top priority is fighting recession. Thom thinks their making it worse and in January the next President will have a bad mess to deal this.
Paul says he would be doing what Bernanke is doing except I would do something about the banking mess. What has everyone scared is the specter of Japan – deflation. They had overblown real estate, etc. Turned into a 10 year recession. Many say this could have been avoided. As for inflation – the Fed story, which is probably right – oil prices high, food prices high, etc. China becoming a larger consumer nation. There is no wage in the wage-price spiral. So inflation is a huge blip.
So Thom’s theory may or may not be true. He’s reasonably sure that Bernanke is sincere. Financial system lost its bearings. In 1931 terrible banking crisis. New deal solved it by new regulation. Clinton pulled the plug on glass ceiling. Now, we’ve had hedge funds, etc… markets did an end run around regulations. We need to fix this. Only action right now is coming from state officials – Andrew Cuomo and Elliot Spitzer in NY, for example.
Back to Paul – starting in the 70s, picking up steam in the 80s, repudiation of the New Deal (Limbaugh – “Roosevelt is dead!”). Massive deregulation, insane trade policies, war on labor.. I call this administration a “kleptocracy”. Destruction of fundamentals were well under way before Clinton, but he made things worse with things like NAFTA. People are waking up to this.
Marc
We don’t see what the real problem. We need to look at money in a different way. Introduced Dr. Lynn Twist. Life is like a game of musical chairs. There aren’t enough chairs for all of us. Captains of industry understand this. We have 2 titans – Bill Gates and Warren Buffet – see this. But Gates needs to fix Microsoft and Buffet invests in China and says it’s not his job to tell China what to do.
The sub-prime mortgage crisis where banks are negotiating with the brokers and not the home-owners. Brokers insisted on banks lending money to people who couldn’t afford the mortgages as presented.. This is awful.
Letter coming with your “stimulus” money “Here’s your money, just want you to know we have no idea what we’re doing with your money or how to fix the problem”. (Mark’s idea of what the letter will look like).
Questions
Are we going to end up with razor wire around wealthy properties…?
Paul answers - it’s possible that things will get really catastrophic. What’s happening – every week some unknown market implodes. So we have no way of knowing what’s next. No regulation, no controls. It’s falling apart. So it’s a race to see if new “fixes” can prevent a depression and have “only” a recession. But it will last a long time. Dirty little secret about the Fed, it’s about housing. And there’s nothing they can do about housing right now, so it’s hard to engineer a recovery.
Social Security – Krugman: has a dedicated tax. It’s in very good shape in spite of pessimistic projections. The crisis is an invention of people who want to dismantle it. What drives them is the projected cost of health care in Medicare. That’s not a SS problem, it’s a health care issue. If we solve that, SS projections go away. Krugman is worried about private debt. There is something like $7b of wealth that is in the housing market that will go away because of debt. People will walk away from their houses. Will cause a big problem (more) in banks.
Value of the dollar – impact of lowered value? Thom – value of currency has to do with variety of perceptions. When Reagan came in we were the largest creditor and exporter of finished goods – now we’re the largest debtor, largest importer of goods, etc. Paul: Europe is a creditable alternative now. Technological level basically the same as ours, good financial markets, better health care system. Now Euros are a good place to put investments. In the short term, fall in the dollar is a good thing. Exports are rising, US products are looking more attractive worldwide. We also have one good piece of luck – our foreign debts are in dollars, so when the dollar falls, our debt doesn’t go up (as it did in Argentina when their debt in dollars with the decline of the Argentinean peso tripled their debt).
What about the debt incurred in Iraq? Krugman– relative to the economy, Iraq is running about half of what VietNam was. So – is $10B enough to cripple the economy? No. If you ask what we could be doing with that money, it’s very different. But this isn’t a realistic alternative right now, under Bush.
Unions – in airlines – SW Airlines most profitable and strongest unions. Krugman: 1969 GM largest company, strongest union, salary ~$25,000. Today – Wal-Mart largest company. Best salary ~$18,000.
When to get out of the market? How to invest? Marc – If you have the time, take the long term view -invest in companies that are going to help solve the problems – agriculture, energy solutions, etc. Pay attention to what’s in your mutual funds.
If we had to fight a war today, we couldn’t because we no longer have the manufacturing to support it. So if we truly had a security crisis, where are the resources? Krugman: We’re capable of doing incredible things if we have the will. I don’t agree with the doomsayers. These look like problems because we don’t have the leadership.
Could US bail on its retirement benefits to govt employees? Krugman: Governments do go bankrupt, but we’re more likely to default on debt to China before pension obligations. But in the end we’ll honor the obligations. Progressive revolution will make it happen. A new New Deal. Thom: the economy is here to serve us, not the other way around. Marc – we’re going to have to give up the unfair treatment of capital gains vs wages.
The stimulus package – purpose? Thom: nice to help bail out banks because people will use it to pay down debt. Krugman: purpose, from the point of view of Congress, is aboveboard. Housing is collapsing, consumer spending is decreasing. It’s to buy time til other things can be figured out. It’s a lousy plan, little bang for the buck. Things that would have been helpful – increased unemployment benefits, etc, but Bush would have rejected all that. There will be no change until change of administration. Marc: Wall Street said “it’s not nearly enough”.
Greatest confidence Obama and Clinton wrt the economy?
Marc: I believe Obama will be the next president. My greatest confidence is that he is less connected to corporate America than anyone else. I worry about the people he will surround himself with people who may or may not have the courage to do what is necessary. Clinton – with Bill, would be a very strong leader. Marc questions Bill’s moral fiber.
Thom: Good that Hillary is distancing herself from some of the economic policies of Bill. Obama – he ran in Illinois on single-payer but doesn’t now. Edwards had the best plan.
Paul: both candidates have very good economic advice. Hillary also knows financial economic stuff very well. Unclear from Obama. On health care: Hillary’s plan IS the Edwards plan. Goal from both: Medicare for all. Obama has shown a tendency to weaken or soften the progressive plan. Stimulus – Clinton’s plan looked more like New Deal, Obama’s was rebates. For 35 years right-wing “free market” has dominated. I’m less optimistic than I was 6 months ago.
what a fabulous session!
Topic: The Bush Economy and the Middle Class
Intro – Bush’s policies are a form of looting.
Paul Krugman
What people usually do is contract Bush v Clinton years. The best years of Bush are worse than the worst years of the Clinton years… But this is an unfair comparison – to Bush. We’ve forgotten what an economy that’s good for the middle class looks like. It hasn’t been good for the past 30 years.
Politics managed to change the direction. (note: Read his latest book, Concience of a Liberal).
Tax rates have changed – bad for the middle class. Eating away of the social services, tho not as much as the right wanted.
Conclusion I’ve come to – more subtle things – shift in the balance of power. FDR in reverse. Example – enforcement of labor laws , or lack thereof. NLRB ruled supervisors can’t unionize. Define supervisor? Anyone who ever gives direction to anyone else. (Yikes!) Removal of informal constraints from paying CEOs 1000x what their workers get.
Shift of power already began before Reagan took office. Has led to severe polarization. Result we’re more productive and rich than in 1973 but it’s arguable that the middle class is better off.
Middle class has consistently done worse under Republicans than Democrats. Even under Carter. Bush economy has one feature that is politically gratifying. Underlying bad news will not be matched by a last minute recovery (which has worked for Republicans in the past)
Two worst economies in past history were both under men named Bush.
Thom
News today- Bernake signaled his readiness to bolster the economy with cheaper money. But top priority is fighting recession. Thom thinks their making it worse and in January the next President will have a bad mess to deal this.
Paul says he would be doing what Bernanke is doing except I would do something about the banking mess. What has everyone scared is the specter of Japan – deflation. They had overblown real estate, etc. Turned into a 10 year recession. Many say this could have been avoided. As for inflation – the Fed story, which is probably right – oil prices high, food prices high, etc. China becoming a larger consumer nation. There is no wage in the wage-price spiral. So inflation is a huge blip.
So Thom’s theory may or may not be true. He’s reasonably sure that Bernanke is sincere. Financial system lost its bearings. In 1931 terrible banking crisis. New deal solved it by new regulation. Clinton pulled the plug on glass ceiling. Now, we’ve had hedge funds, etc… markets did an end run around regulations. We need to fix this. Only action right now is coming from state officials – Andrew Cuomo and Elliot Spitzer in NY, for example.
Back to Paul – starting in the 70s, picking up steam in the 80s, repudiation of the New Deal (Limbaugh – “Roosevelt is dead!”). Massive deregulation, insane trade policies, war on labor.. I call this administration a “kleptocracy”. Destruction of fundamentals were well under way before Clinton, but he made things worse with things like NAFTA. People are waking up to this.
Marc
We don’t see what the real problem. We need to look at money in a different way. Introduced Dr. Lynn Twist. Life is like a game of musical chairs. There aren’t enough chairs for all of us. Captains of industry understand this. We have 2 titans – Bill Gates and Warren Buffet – see this. But Gates needs to fix Microsoft and Buffet invests in China and says it’s not his job to tell China what to do.
The sub-prime mortgage crisis where banks are negotiating with the brokers and not the home-owners. Brokers insisted on banks lending money to people who couldn’t afford the mortgages as presented.. This is awful.
Letter coming with your “stimulus” money “Here’s your money, just want you to know we have no idea what we’re doing with your money or how to fix the problem”. (Mark’s idea of what the letter will look like).
Questions
Are we going to end up with razor wire around wealthy properties…?
Paul answers - it’s possible that things will get really catastrophic. What’s happening – every week some unknown market implodes. So we have no way of knowing what’s next. No regulation, no controls. It’s falling apart. So it’s a race to see if new “fixes” can prevent a depression and have “only” a recession. But it will last a long time. Dirty little secret about the Fed, it’s about housing. And there’s nothing they can do about housing right now, so it’s hard to engineer a recovery.
Social Security – Krugman: has a dedicated tax. It’s in very good shape in spite of pessimistic projections. The crisis is an invention of people who want to dismantle it. What drives them is the projected cost of health care in Medicare. That’s not a SS problem, it’s a health care issue. If we solve that, SS projections go away. Krugman is worried about private debt. There is something like $7b of wealth that is in the housing market that will go away because of debt. People will walk away from their houses. Will cause a big problem (more) in banks.
Value of the dollar – impact of lowered value? Thom – value of currency has to do with variety of perceptions. When Reagan came in we were the largest creditor and exporter of finished goods – now we’re the largest debtor, largest importer of goods, etc. Paul: Europe is a creditable alternative now. Technological level basically the same as ours, good financial markets, better health care system. Now Euros are a good place to put investments. In the short term, fall in the dollar is a good thing. Exports are rising, US products are looking more attractive worldwide. We also have one good piece of luck – our foreign debts are in dollars, so when the dollar falls, our debt doesn’t go up (as it did in Argentina when their debt in dollars with the decline of the Argentinean peso tripled their debt).
What about the debt incurred in Iraq? Krugman– relative to the economy, Iraq is running about half of what VietNam was. So – is $10B enough to cripple the economy? No. If you ask what we could be doing with that money, it’s very different. But this isn’t a realistic alternative right now, under Bush.
Unions – in airlines – SW Airlines most profitable and strongest unions. Krugman: 1969 GM largest company, strongest union, salary ~$25,000. Today – Wal-Mart largest company. Best salary ~$18,000.
When to get out of the market? How to invest? Marc – If you have the time, take the long term view -invest in companies that are going to help solve the problems – agriculture, energy solutions, etc. Pay attention to what’s in your mutual funds.
If we had to fight a war today, we couldn’t because we no longer have the manufacturing to support it. So if we truly had a security crisis, where are the resources? Krugman: We’re capable of doing incredible things if we have the will. I don’t agree with the doomsayers. These look like problems because we don’t have the leadership.
Could US bail on its retirement benefits to govt employees? Krugman: Governments do go bankrupt, but we’re more likely to default on debt to China before pension obligations. But in the end we’ll honor the obligations. Progressive revolution will make it happen. A new New Deal. Thom: the economy is here to serve us, not the other way around. Marc – we’re going to have to give up the unfair treatment of capital gains vs wages.
The stimulus package – purpose? Thom: nice to help bail out banks because people will use it to pay down debt. Krugman: purpose, from the point of view of Congress, is aboveboard. Housing is collapsing, consumer spending is decreasing. It’s to buy time til other things can be figured out. It’s a lousy plan, little bang for the buck. Things that would have been helpful – increased unemployment benefits, etc, but Bush would have rejected all that. There will be no change until change of administration. Marc: Wall Street said “it’s not nearly enough”.
Greatest confidence Obama and Clinton wrt the economy?
Marc: I believe Obama will be the next president. My greatest confidence is that he is less connected to corporate America than anyone else. I worry about the people he will surround himself with people who may or may not have the courage to do what is necessary. Clinton – with Bill, would be a very strong leader. Marc questions Bill’s moral fiber.
Thom: Good that Hillary is distancing herself from some of the economic policies of Bill. Obama – he ran in Illinois on single-payer but doesn’t now. Edwards had the best plan.
Paul: both candidates have very good economic advice. Hillary also knows financial economic stuff very well. Unclear from Obama. On health care: Hillary’s plan IS the Edwards plan. Goal from both: Medicare for all. Obama has shown a tendency to weaken or soften the progressive plan. Stimulus – Clinton’s plan looked more like New Deal, Obama’s was rebates. For 35 years right-wing “free market” has dominated. I’m less optimistic than I was 6 months ago.
what a fabulous session!
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